The Indo-Pacific is emerging as the defining theatre of 21st century geopolitics, where global power struggles converge around trade, security, and influence. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025 signals a recalibration of U.S. foreign policy, the global order faces a moment of profound uncertainty. Trump’s Project 2025 agenda, emphasising "America First" policies, disengagement from traditional alliances like NATO, and potential tariffs on China, intensifies geopolitical tension. Meanwhile, China is advancing its influence through economic and military modernisation.

In recent years, China has cooperated with other major emerging powers to rally the “Global South” such as the BRICS and through the expansion of its membership to counter U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Economically, China has been financing infrastructure projects in the Indo-Pacific region through the AIIB, indirectly consolidating its economic and security influence in the region by supporting the construction of key infrastructure, thus making countries in these regions more strategically dependent on China. But will this dynamic persist in Trump’s second term? The current globalised world is deeply rooted in Western-founded and dominated systems — a framework that has enabled China’s rapid development. While advocating for a “multipolar” world order, China’s rise continues to be perceived as a security threat by many nations. During the presidential campaign, Trump maintained a hardline stance on the so-called “China threat”, vowing to impose sky-high tariffs as retaliation to the trade imbalances and China’s efforts to explore the possibility of circumventing the U.S. dollar in international trade settlement. Against this backdrop, this panel will explore how China’s security influence in the Indo-Pacific might evolve under another looming U.S.-China trade war, and how nations in the region might navigate their strategic choices amidst intensifying competition.